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Historical perspective: The “Next Harvest” study of IFPRI, 2004

Atanassov, A. et al. To Reach The Poor. Results from the ISNAR-IFPRI Next Harvest Study on GeneticallyModified Crops, Public Research, and Policy Implications. EPTD Discussion Paper 116. (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 2004).

Cohen, J., (2005). Poorer nations turn to publicly developed GM crops. Nature Biotechnology, vol. 23 nr. 1 January 2005.

The study, the first of its kind, was a joint effort of partners from 15 developing countries on three continents and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to analyze the current state of research, regulation, genetic resources and institutional roles in developing genetically modified (GM) crops. This study was designed to be representative of key trends, rather than comprehensive in approach. The goal was to develop information to help scientists, policy makers and regulators understand their respective country’s public GM crop research agenda, identify polices and regulatory needs for specific GM events and provide a transparent picture of national research and regulation for stakeholders.

To study the progress of GM crops through to commercialization, data were collected by regulatory stage, emphasizing the most advanced events possible. Four stages were used: experimental (transformation events that produce stable transgenic plants derived from multiple generations at the laboratory/greenhouse/glasshouse scale); confined field trials (transformation events expressing stable traits in small-scale, single or multilocation confined trials); scale-up (transgenic plants advancing into larger, precommercial trials); or commercial release (products marketed to farmers through privately or publicly owned seed companies or other institutional mechanisms).

The most important findings of this study (as reported in 2005)

  • Although most transformation events focused on cereals, significant numbers of a diverse range of transgenic vegetables, fruits, roots and tubers were also created. Significant progress has also been achieved in transforming orphan (noncereal food staples and indigenous crops, including mung beans, beans, chickpeas, cowpeas, lupin, cacao and coffee).
  • Asian countries have products in all stages of the research pipeline, having made significant commitments to GM crops and are already achieving significant success with insect-resistant GM cotton approvals. Sub-Saharan Africa, with the exception of South Africa, lacks many capabilities and resources to advance such research. Many countries are just considering whether to conduct research on, or to allow import of, GM crops or products. Research capacity and potential markets are evolving (e.g., for insect resistant cotton), albeit subject to uncertainties regarding use and trade.
  • Success has been limited in developing crops with traits other than insect resistance, virus resistance and herbicide tolerance. Most countries are focusing on genes that are already available and have already been characterized, but a few are also investing in their own gene discovery and development, such as South Africa, Malaysia, Brazil, India and China.
  • Access to plant genetic resources that possess acceptable agronomic performance and are suitable for transformation is an important influence on adoption of technology. Importantly, data from the study show that 85% of the genetic resources used for transformation were derived locally from public materials. Public genetic resources, defined as locally adapted and well preferred by farmers, were identified for 41 of 45 crops. Unlike private materials, these genetic resources are usually unencumbered by varietal or intellectual property claims. The use and management of this local material becomes, therefore, all the more important.
  • When study data were examined on the basis of four regulatory stages (experimental, confined trials, scale up, commercial release), a total of 127 transformation events are at the experimental stage, 44 are in confined trials, 22 in scale-up testing (mostly in China) and 7 are in the commercial-release stage.
  • Despite expectations of benefits to the public sector, few partnerships were developed, including those with the private sector. On the basis of the data, partnerships appear to be less common events (80 transformation events, representing only 40% of the total). Single, public R&D institutions, working without any form of collaboration, conducted the largest proportion (60%) of research. Of the 80 transformation events created through partnerships, the majority (48 events) involved public-public collaboration, most often between public research institutions in the same country. Public-private collaborations were responsible for 21 GM crop events (10%), including a number from African countries (Egypt, Kenya and South Africa). The international private sector is involved in the majority of these cases, local seed companies playing a minor role.
  • Results from the study indicate that in general, plans as to how GM crops will be disseminated to farmers have not been established—44% of the scientists indicated they do not yet have suitable seed distribution mechanisms to reach farmers. Another 23% said that they would rely on public sector methods of dissemination, involving the national agricultural research institutes, or universities. Private sector partnerships were being contemplated for 7% of the cases. Preliminary plans for advancement of the remaining GM plants were not available by the end of the study. Lack of collaborative and partnership arrangements reflect the paucity of options available for the developing countries. The partnerships reported do not include time needed for acceptance, to engage farmers from early to final stages, and to meet appropriate seed or plant material suppliers.
  • Public research included in this study targets research that could enhance quality of life in agricultural communities and includes research on many basic food staples of importance to local economies. Some of the GM crops reported could yield several quality of life improvements:
    • Reduction in the use of conventional pesticides, which has quantifiable environmental and human health benefits, as well as a reduction in application costs per acre. Of the transformation events reported in our study, 35 confer insect-resistant traits to crops, reflecting the perceived importance of pests on regional economies.
    • Reduction in the use of other agrochemicals widely used to fight virus, fungus or other diseases. Eighty-four transformation events target this area, which if brought to the market successfully, should have an effect in reducing costs and increasing production.
    • Improved abiotic stress crop tolerance, such as drought and salinity that place limitations on poor farmers located in less favored regions. Of the 201 events, 11 are being developed in this promising area.
    • Better product quality, such as prolonged shelf life or enhanced product characteristics (foods delivering alternative carbohydrate or fat composition) that would improve transportation and consumer appeal of crops. Of 15 transformation events being developed for product qualities, 5 are in the area of nutritional enhancement and 6 are to prolong shelf life. The other 4 are for product characteristics, such as increased sucrose. There are also major public initiatives, such as HarvestPlus, that seeks to reduce micronutrient malnutrition to breed nutrient- dense staple foods (http://www.harvestplus.org).
    • Alternative and more efficient provision of essential vitamins and vaccines. Nine transformation events are being developed for plant-based vaccine deployment.

Conclusions of the study and key recommendation for the future

This study finds the public sector to be a competent, but largely unproven, player for GM crop production in developing countries.

Greater attention is needed for specific events where resources and knowledge are lacking to complete efficacy and safety testing. Otherwise, GM crops will remain in preliminary testing. Indeed, on the basis of this study’s data, we estimate that approximately 22% of the 201 transformation events created in public research programs remain in confined testing. Although many research trends in this report are positive, few transformed crops have been released from confined into precommercial testing or into use.

Policy, research and regulatory options are needed to expedite regulatory decisions and testing of public GM crops. The sooner such evaluations occur, the faster GM crops unsuitable for field application can be discarded and successful GM crops moved forward, thus saving public funds and minimizing opportunity costs. This report facilitates making specific recommendations by scientists, policy makers, regulators and other stakeholders striving to evaluate and foster development of publicly derived GM plants.

Using agronomically productive genetic resources for transformation, and not just for ease of regeneration, will expedite public research. This study reveals that access to proprietary genetic resources in developing countries is extremely limited; only 6% of all transformation events used private material. The ability to transform local, widely used public or indigenous genetic resources provides the potential for greater public and farmer acceptance. Using high-performance GM public germ plasm means that farmers will not be prevented from saving seeds, nor will they potentially be under monopoly pricing of seeds.

Although limited collaboration does occur between developing countries and Western companies, the study reveals that developing countries did not forge a single (‘South-to-South’) collaboration among themselves. Contacts with other countries of economic parity would create efficiencies by sharing knowledge on specific crops, traits and regulatory dossiers.

Although some commercially developed GM products have a role to play, GM crops developed by public research institutes should be most relevant to local needs in poor countries. Paradoxically, because they are novel, locally developed products pose unique challenges for institutes seeking regulatory approval, and gaining approval can be one of the biggest obstacles facing public GM crops in developing nations. In contrast, commercial GM crops preapproved in Western markets are more successful in gaining approvals in developing countries.